Donald Trump’s recent re-election as President of the United States could lead the European Union to face significant policy shifts, potentially reshaping its transatlantic relationship and reinforcing its own push for strategic autonomy. However, with the EU still in the process of appointing the new College of Commissioners, and the European Council and the Commission expected to issue a statement on the matter next Wednesday, November 13, it’s still early to assess the full impact of this development on the EU agenda. Here’s a closer look at ten policy areas where Trump’s presidency may influence the EU’s priorities.
1. Strategic Autonomy and Economic Independence
Trump’s “America First” approach has been an incentive for the EU to strengthen its economic independence. While many EU policymakers view the US as a key partner, the need to balance this relationship through enhanced self-reliance is revitalised. Reindustrialisation, support for innovation, and competitiveness initiatives will likely be prioritised, especially when it comes to new technologies like AI and quantum computing. Additionally, the EU may consider diversifying its partnerships, potentially looking beyond the US to reduce dependency on American support.
2. Industrial Focus in Tech Policy
Trump’s election will give further credibility to EU advocacy for a more industrial-focused approach in tech policy. EU policymakers are increasingly wary of over-reliance on the US tech infrastructure, with European national ministers and technological groups pushing for more digital sovereignty. Consequently, anticipated EU initiatives like the EU Data Strategy, Digital Network Act, and Cloud/AI Development Act are expected to emphasise their industrial component, aiming to strengthen Europe’s autonomy in the critical tech landscape.
3. Trade and Technology Council (TTC) re-evaluation
The future of the Trade and Technology Council (TTC) – a forum established in 2021 for coordinating transatlantic tech policy – could be impacted by Trump’s domestic focus. This might lead to a de-prioritisation of such cooperative efforts, potentially weakening the transatlantic alignment on issues like semiconductors and AI standards.
4. Challenges to the EU’s Digital Rulebook
Trump’s election will generate new concerns when it comes to current enforcement efforts of EU digital regulations, especially the Digital Services Act. In line with the views of his high-profile supporters like Elon Musk, Trump has been actively vocal against the EU’s digital and competition policies, which he sees as a threat to US companies’ power.
5. Artificial Intelligence Regulation and Competition
Trump’s intention to rescind Biden’s 2023 executive order directing agencies to regulate artificial intelligence, signals a preference for a more laissez-faire approach. In terms of competition, Trump is expected to adopt a more lenient stance on antitrust investigations, particularly those involving AI companies. This divergence could widen the regulatory divide between the US and EU, potentially pushing the EU to adjust its approach to merger rules to enable European “champions” to compete on the global stage. This will further encourage the EU to streamline its regulatory environment, as recommended in the Draghi Report, to facilitate the scale up of European businesses.
6. Defence and Cybersecurity Priorities
Trump’s ambivalence toward NATO and possible reduction in support for Ukraine could significantly impact EU defence priorities. His past criticism of NATO raises concerns that a scaled-back US role might leave Europe more exposed, prompting EU leaders to assume greater responsibility in regional security. To counterbalance potential US disengagement, the EU may further prioritise initiatives like the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) as envisaged in the Draghi report, supporting European defence industries and strengthening autonomy. Additionally, if the US distance themselves from NATO, this could affect the alliance’s cyber capabilities. American-led international efforts to curb commercial spyware misuse, for instance, could be abandoned, weakening global efforts to address surveillance abuses.
7. Trade Tariffs and Economic Tensions
A Trump-led US administration could reinstate tariffs on European goods, exacerbating ongoing trade disputes over issues such as steel, aluminium, and green subsidies. In response, the EU may retaliate, further straining the relationship between the two economies. Additionally, the EU’s reliance on Chinese tech supplies (e.g. for telecommunications equipment, electrical machinery and apparatus, and automatic data-processing machines) could be disrupted by Trump’s intensified trade restrictions on China, prompting the EU to increasingly pursue industrial self-sufficiency.
8. Climate and Energy Policy
Trump’s anticipated withdrawal from the Paris Agreement would severely impact global climate efforts, pressuring the EU to assume a leadership role, starting with COP29 in Baku. While the Biden administration still represents the U.S., the incoming Trump presidency casts doubts on the reliability of any U.S. commitments or pledges made in Azerbaijan.
Although the EU is developing its decarbonisation trajectory independently from other actors, the Trump administration’s domestic energy and industrial policies could indirectly affect the EU’s pursuit of sustainable competitiveness.
On the one hand, while Trump is unlikely to fully dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) – given the positive impact it had on the US economy and its popularity in Republican districts – he would likely slow its implementation in certain sectors. This could reduce the US market’s attractiveness for clean tech industries, potentially supporting the EU’s ongoing efforts to scale up domestic clean tech production. On the other hand, Trump’s promise to lower energy prices could represent an appealing alternative for European businesses, further deepening the already significant EU-US energy price gap.
9. Financial Autonomy and Capital Markets Union
Trump’s protectionist policies could highlight the EU’s need to reduce reliance on US capital markets. Building on the recommendations of the Draghi Report, the EU might accelerate its Capital Markets Union to provide European companies and startups with better access to local financing. A decreased dependency on the bank-centric model could allow Europe to strengthen its financial autonomy, reducing vulnerability to shifts in US financial policy and fostering a resilient European market.
10. Undermining Europe’s Integration
Trump has an historically complex relationship with European leaders. However, in 2024 Trump can find favourable interlocutors such as Giorgia Meloni or Viktor Orbán, who may share certain viewpoints with him. Closer alignment with these leaders could potentially undermine a broader European vision.
To summarise, Trump’s upcoming presidency will likely drive the EU to pursue greater strategic autonomy across multiple policy areas, including tech, trade, climate and defence. While the transatlantic partnership will remain critical, Trump’s positions will prompt the EU to adopt a more self-reliant and globally engaged approach.
Quentin Philippart de Foy – EU Digital Policy Manager, Brussels
